DATA TRACKER

Global Economic Outlook

The tracker contains charts, maps and tables on the economic outlook at the global, regional and country level, covering GDP, inflation and unemployment.

Economic growth expected to weaken further in 2023

In their latest forecast for the world economy published in October 2022, the IMF expects global growth to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Inflation is also expected to rise, from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but then decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent by 2024.

Risks to the outlook remain unusually large and to the downside, with a 25% chance of global growth falling below 2.0 percent in the next year, and a 10-15% chance of a worst-case scenario that could see global growth decline to just 1.1% in 2023.

Slowdown expected in most in advanced economies

All regions, except for the Middle East and Central Asia, are expected to see slower growth in 2022 than in 2021, according to the IMF forecasts. In Emerging and developing Asia as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to pick-up and remain high in 2023 and 2024.

In contrast, growth in the United States is expected to fall steeply from 5.7% in 2021 to 1.6% and remain below 2% in 2023 and 2024. In the Euro Area, the decline from 2021 to 2022 will be less steep, but growth is expected to fall to just 0.5% in 2023.

India expected to grow by over 6% yearly

Out of the major economies, India is expected to have the strongest growth profile, avargaing above 6% yearly according to the IMF estimates for 2022-2024.

Both Germany and Italy are expected to go into recession in 2023, underlining the negative outlook for the European economy for next year.

The map below shows that most of the economies that are expected to achieve growth rates above 3% in 2023 are located in Asia and Africa.

Regional projection tables

About the data

The data and projections presented on this page are from October 2022 edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook. All the data used is freely available to download from the IMF.

Note that there are several institutions that make projections for the global economy, including the World Bank, the UN, the OECD and more. We use the IMFs projections for this data tracker as it is one of the most comprehensive in terms of the number of indicators and countries included in the pojections.

Changelog

  • First release 2 November 2022

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